How jackpot averaging works and what it means for strategic play
As we have explained, each week when distributing the Jackpot the smart-contract calculates the total number of winners for that week and distributes half of their IGNIS balance among them. That is, each winner receives a reward according to the following formula:
The remaining half of the Balance remains in the smart-contract and constitutes the starting point for the Jackpot of the following week. But, of course, the 0.5 coefficient will also be applied to that week, so that in reality it will not be the remaining 0.5 that will be distributed in the following week, but only 0.25, plus half of the income for the week. Although it may seem complicated, in reality it is not that much.
It’s easy to understand if you think about it like that. Imagine that there is no income from card sales, only winners who share the weekly jackpot. And imagine that the IGNIS Balance for the first week consists of 1000 IGNIS. In that case, the weekly Jackpot would be the following:
As you can see, every week half of the previous week is distributed, but note that in the end the 1000 IGNIS are distributed completely.
Simple model: the same number of cards is sold every week
Now let’s consider the most realistic example that each week the Jackpot enters the same amount of IGNIS, that is 1000 IGNIS per week. The weekly Jackpot chart would look like this:
As you can imagine, after a few weeks the Jackpot has 1000 IGNIS. And even in the event that for some reason cards stopped being sold (because they were sold out, for example), the following week there would still be a Jackpot of 500, the next of 250, etc. Cool, huh?
The main reason for this scheme is to average the expected awards. That is, it is designed not for the unlikely event that each and every week has the same number of card sales (1000 IGNIS, in the previous example) but for unequal weeks.
Complex model: weeks with abnormal sales
Let’s see then the result of an abnormally bad week (the Jackpot raises only 200 IGNIS, instead of 1000), interspersed between equal weeks.
So that the weekly Jacpot, instead of distributing only 100 IGNIS, has distributed 600. And now let’s see the result of an exceptionally good week, where the Jackpot has achieved, instead of the usual 1000 IGNIS, 5000 IGNIS.
Thus, the Jackpot of week n has distributed 3000 IGNIS instead of 5000.
But what about the first few weeks?
You may have noticed that the first weeks suffer a penalty: they enter more for the sale of cards than they distribute in Jackpot. For this reason, we have decided to enhance the smart-contract with an injection of IGNIS in the first week. And how does this injection work? Well, in the following way. Let’s imagine that we boost the Jackpot of the first week with 2000 IGNIS, and that in the following weeks the smart-contract always enters 1000 IGNIS per week:
The injection is dosed week by week, counteracting the penalty of the averaging system.
What consequences does the system have for the strategic player?
You should pay attention to the fact that this system tends to equal the TOTAL amount of IGNIS that are distributed each week, but that does not mean that the amount PER WINNER is equal. That will depend on the number of users claiming their share of the Jackpot each week, which can be highly variable. Therefore, the strategic player must understand the averaging system and its implications before deciding when to claim the Jackpot.
For example, a week in which the Jackpot increases abnormally may mean that many players are going to claim their share. However, the increase in the balance of the contract will be distributed not only that week, but also the following weeks. And it could be that the following weeks there will be fewer claims, so it could touch more IGNIS per winner.
Similarly, a week in which the Jackpot increases very little, that is, there are few card sales, it may mean that there will be few users claiming the prize. And if that is so, it may be that although the prize is little more than half that of the previous week, it touches much more for each winner. On the other hand, when you claim the Jackpot you will also receive the Tarasca Card, which will provide you with weekly dividends (including the week you claim it). And there are only 250 Tarasca Cards, so if you wait, you could be left without any.